Washington Nationals at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Washington Nationals handed the Baltimore Orioles a 9-3 defeat at Oriole Park at Camden Yards on August 13, 2024, handing the home side a decisive loss despite entering the game as a 66 percent favorite according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Washington scored in four separate innings, building a lead it never relinquished after a two-run first, then adding two more in the fourth and a three-run sixth that effectively closed the door on any Baltimore comeback. The Nationals finished with 14 hits to Baltimore's 10, and the model's home win probability fell from that 66 percent pregame figure all the way to zero by the final out.

The swing plays told the story of how quickly the game shifted. Baltimore's bats had early chances but failed to capitalize, as Gunnar Henderson's strikeout against Jake Irvin in the bottom of the first represented a 9.0 percent swing against the Orioles, and Ramón Urías's flyout in the second cost Baltimore another 11.2 percent in win probability. Anthony Santander's home run off Irvin in the third briefly gave Baltimore life at plus 11.2 percent, but the Nationals answered decisively in the top of the fourth, where Andrés Chaparro's double off Trevor Rogers swung the game 11.1 percent in Washington's favor, followed by a Luis García Jr. sacrifice fly worth another 9.6 percent.

Chaparro was the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a WPA of plus 25.4 and an RE24 of plus 3.3, while García Jr. added plus 10.0 WPA on his own. On the mound, Jake Irvin was the clear standout, posting a plus 22.1 WPA that underscored how effectively he limited Baltimore's offense across his outing and kept Washington in a position to pull away comfortably. Ryan Mountcastle contributed a plus 9.1 WPA in a losing effort for the Orioles.