Los Angeles Dodgers at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-2 at American Family Field on August 12, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate had Milwaukee entering with a 52% chance to avoid. Clayton Kershaw anchored the effort on the mound, finishing as the top pitcher by win probability added at +23.6%, and received early help from the defense in the second inning when Rhys Hoskins hit into a strikeout double play that swung win probability 7.0 points in Los Angeles's favor.

The game's decisive sequence began in the third inning when Mookie Betts turned on a Freddy Peralta offering for a home run, a swing the DiamondIQ model valued at +18.3% in win probability and the single largest play of the game. Shohei Ohtani added to that lead with his own home run off Peralta in the fifth, a +13.3% swing that pushed the Dodgers to a 4-0 advantage before Milwaukee answered. The Brewers got on the board in the bottom of the sixth when William Contreras connected off Joe Kelly for a two-run home run, a +15.6% swing that briefly tightened the contest. Betts then put the outcome beyond doubt with a single off Bryan Hudson in the seventh, adding another +10.8% to his overall impact. Relievers Alex Vesia and Michael Kopech closed things out, contributing +6.3% and +5.2% respectively.

By the final numbers, Betts led all players with a combined +28.4% WPA and +2.4 RE24, making him the clear driver of the Dodgers' offense alongside a Contreras effort that, despite coming on the losing side, registered +20.4% WPA and +2.5 RE24. Ohtani rounded out the standout performers at +11.2% WPA and +1.2 RE24. The Brewers managed six hits but could not solve Kershaw when it mattered, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate settled at 0% for Milwaukee by the final out.