San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 6 | 10 | 2 |
| MIA | 2 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | - | 7 | 10 | 0 |
The Story
The Miami Marlins overcame a mid-game San Diego surge to defeat the Padres 7-6 at loanDepot park on August 11, 2024, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had assessed as unlikely, assigning Miami just a 36% win probability before first pitch. The Marlins built an early five-run cushion through the first two innings, but San Diego chipped away and pulled within a run before the critical exchanges of the final frames settled the outcome.
The decisive sequence began in the bottom of the seventh, when Jesús Sánchez connected on a home run off Yuki Matsui, a swing that shifted Miami's win probability by plus 16.1 points and restored breathing room just as the Padres were threatening to take control. San Diego answered in the top of the eighth, as Donovan Solano launched a home run off Andrew Nardi, the single largest win-probability swing of the game at plus 18.1 points, cutting the deficit and briefly reigniting the Padres' hopes. However, Miami's bullpen held firm in the ninth, where Luis Campusano's strikeout against George Soriano, a minus 10.9 point swing for San Diego, effectively closed the door on the comeback.
Among the standout performers, Solano led all batters with a WPA of plus 18.1 and an RE24 of plus 1.7, while Luis Arraez contributed a WPA of plus 17.5 and an RE24 of plus 1.6 in a strong all-around effort. Jonah Bride added a WPA of plus 15.6. On the mound, Declan Cronin and George Soriano anchored the Miami bullpen with WPA figures of plus 11.3 and plus 10.9 respectively, preserving the one-run win as the DiamondIQ model's estimate climbed to 100% by the final out.