Baltimore Orioles at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 2-1 on August 11, 2024, at Tropicana Field in a low-scoring game that the DiamondIQ model's estimate shifted dramatically from a near-even 46 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. Baltimore's lone run came in the fourth inning on an Anthony Santander home run off Jeffrey Springs, a swing that added 11.3 percent to the Orioles' win probability and briefly gave them the lead they would hold until Tampa Bay answered late. The Rays tied the game in the seventh when Dylan Carlson singled off Cionel Pérez, a hit worth 14.2 percent in win probability that leveled the contest, and they added the decisive run in the eighth to pull ahead for good.

The eighth inning proved to be the game's pivot point in both directions. Gunnar Henderson doubled off Manuel Rodríguez to give Baltimore a threat, adding 8.2 percent to their win probability, but Adley Rutschman followed with a flyout that swung 9.6 percent back toward Tampa Bay, effectively snuffing the rally. On the Rays' side, Josh Lowe drew an intentional walk off Craig Kimbrel in the bottom half, a sequence that added 8.0 percent to Tampa Bay's chances and underscored the pressure Baltimore's bullpen was operating under with the lead in jeopardy.

From a pitching standpoint, Albert Suárez was the game's dominant force, contributing 36.2 percent in win probability added to anchor the Rays' effort, with Edwin Uceta adding 16.6 percent and Pete Fairbanks closing things out with 15.2 percent. Among position players, Carlson led all batters at plus-14.2 percent WPA with a RE24 of 0.8, while Henderson finished at plus-9.9 percent WPA despite the rally falling short. The Orioles finished with nine hits against six for Tampa Bay, but left enough on the base paths to allow the Rays to convert their slimmer offensive output into the win.