Cleveland Guardians at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians handed the Minnesota Twins a 5-3 defeat at Target Field on August 11, 2024, overcoming a game the DiamondIQ model had opened as a near coin flip, with Minnesota carrying a 51 percent pre-game win probability that collapsed to zero by the final out. Cleveland did its damage in concentrated bursts, plating a run in the fourth and then blowing the game open with four in the sixth. José Ramírez got Cleveland on the board first with a home run off David Festa in the fourth inning, a swing worth +11.3 percent in win probability. The decisive blow came two innings later when David Fry launched a home run off Caleb Thielbar, the single most impactful play of the night at +14.3 percent, and Steven Kwan followed with a single off Cole Sands that extended the rally and added another +12.4 percent to Cleveland's win probability. Minnesota added two in the eighth to make it a two-run game but could not complete the comeback.

On the pitching side, Jorge Alcala was the model's top-rated arm on the night, generating +23.0 percent in win-probability added, while starter Tanner Bibee contributed +13.6 percent. Emmanuel Clase closed out the ninth despite some turbulence, including a walk to Kyle Farmer that briefly pushed Minnesota's chances upward by +11.4 percent, before Willi Castro's strikeout to end the game swung the probability 12.2 percent back in Cleveland's favor and ended any threat. Among batters, Fry led all players at +16.0 percent WPA, while Byron Buxton paced Minnesota's offensive effort with +13.1 percent WPA and a strong +2.3 RE24, and Christian Vázquez added +12.2 percent for the Guardians. Cleveland finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while Minnesota stranded opportunities despite posting eleven hits and an error in a losing effort.