Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros handed the Boston Red Sox a lopsided 10-2 defeat at Fenway Park on August 11, 2024, turning what the DiamondIQ model had projected as a 53 percent home-win probability into a complete Houston takeover. The Astros produced all ten of their runs in two innings, breaking through with a single tally in the third before exploding for five runs in the fifth and adding four more in the sixth, while Boston managed just two runs on six hits against a Houston pitching staff that controlled the game from start to finish.

The decisive blow came in the fifth inning when Alex Bregman connected on a home run off Brennan Bernardino, a swing that shifted win probability by 20.7 percentage points and effectively ended any realistic path to a Boston comeback. Bernardino continued to struggle in that same frame, as Yordan Alvarez followed with a home run of his own for a 4.7-point WPA swing, and Pedro León added a single worth 3.8 points. Bernardino had also factored into the earlier third-inning damage, when Alvarez reached on a hit by pitch for a 4.5-point swing. Mauricio Dubón drew a walk off Lucas Sims in that same inning to extend the threat for another 3.9 points.

Bregman finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-17.2 and an RE24 of plus-1.8, while Alvarez added plus-9.1 WPA and plus-1.7 RE24, and Jose Altuve contributed plus-4.4 WPA. On the mound, Hunter Brown was the standout performer with a plus-19.5 WPA, supported by Lucas Sims at plus-5.1. The DiamondIQ model closed with Boston's win probability at zero percent, a reflection of how thoroughly Houston dismantled the Red Sox across the final two-thirds of the ballgame.