Oakland Athletics at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap

The Oakland Athletics defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 1-0 on August 10, 2024, at Rogers Centre, holding Toronto to just two hits across nine innings. The DiamondIQ model had opened the game with a 59 percent pre-game win probability favoring the Blue Jays, but Oakland's pitching and a single swing of the bat flipped that completely by the final out.

The decisive moment came in the top of the sixth inning, when Brent Rooker connected on a solo home run off Yariel Rodríguez, shifting win probability by 14.6 percent in Oakland's favor and supplying the only run either team would score. From that point, the Athletics' bullpen took over and methodically protected the one-run lead. Osvaldo Bido led all pitchers with a 34.4 percent WPA contribution, while Tyler Ferguson added 23.3 percent, highlighted by a key groundout he induced from Alejandro Kirk in the eighth that swung win probability 12.9 points away from Toronto. Scott Alexander contributed as well, coaxing a double-play grounder from Ernie Clement in the seventh that shifted momentum 14.3 percent toward Oakland.

Mason Miller closed it out in the ninth with the DiamondIQ model's estimate sitting at a near-certain Oakland victory, retiring Spencer Horwitz on a strikeout that represented a 27.0 percent swing and finishing Vladimir Guerrero Jr. on a strikeout worth another 10.7 percent. Horwitz, despite his strikeout ending the game, led all position players with a 29.1 percent WPA on the strength of earlier plate appearances, while Rooker finished at plus-13.0 percent WPA and 1.0 RE24 as the game's lone run-producer.