San Diego Padres at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres erased a two-run deficit with a late-game surge to defeat the Miami Marlins 6-2 at loanDepot park on August 9, 2024, completing their comeback across the final three innings after being shut out through six. Miami had carried a 2-0 lead into the eighth, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected a difficult path for San Diego, opening the night with a 35 percent home win probability for the Marlins that held firm deep into the contest.

The decisive turn came in the top of the ninth, when Jackson Merrill connected on a home run off George Soriano that shifted win probability by 34.2 points in San Diego's favor, drawing the Padres even and fundamentally reorienting the game. Jason Adam then secured the bottom half of the ninth by striking out Emmanuel Rivera, a play that added 14.0 points of win probability for the Padres heading into extras. San Diego then blew the game open in the tenth, where Brett de Geus could not hold the moment. Luis Arraez laced a single for a 32.0-point swing, Jake Cronenworth added a fielder's choice worth 20.8 points, and Manny Machado doubled for another 18.3-point move, capping a four-run frame that pushed the final to 6-2 and left Miami's win probability at zero.

Merrill finished as the game's most impactful player, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-50.4 and an RE24 of plus-2.6. Arraez added plus-23.5 WPA, while Jake Burger contributed plus-20.8 WPA and plus-1.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Edward Cabrera was the standout, posting plus-42.7 WPA in his outing for Miami, keeping the Marlins' lead intact deep into the game before the bullpen faltered. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting San Diego's late-inning discipline and the collapse of Miami's relief corps as the central story of this contest.