Baltimore Orioles at Toronto Blue Jays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 1 |
| TOR | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | - | 7 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Toronto Blue Jays defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-6 on August 8, 2024, at Rogers Centre in a game that swung dramatically before settling in Toronto's favor. The DiamondIQ model entered the contest giving the Blue Jays a 42% chance of winning, a figure that climbed to 100% by the final out despite Baltimore mounting a four-run ninth inning that made the finish far more tense than the box score might suggest.
The game's two most consequential offensive moments came from opposite sides. In the top of the third, Colton Cowser connected on a home run off Kevin Gausman, swinging win probability 16.3 points in Baltimore's direction and briefly putting the Orioles in the driver's seat. Toronto answered in the bottom of the fifth when Vladimir Guerrero Jr. went deep against Dean Kremer, a swing worth 15.3 points of win probability that helped shift momentum back to the home side for good. The Blue Jays had already staked their claim in the first inning with three runs, and added two more in both the fifth and sixth to build what proved to be a sufficient cushion.
Guerrero Jr. was the game's most impactful individual, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-27.8 and an RE24 of plus-3.2, anchored by his home run and a pair of favorable outs that preserved Toronto's position on the run-expectancy ledger. Cowser was Baltimore's standout with a plus-20.6 WPA and plus-3.1 RE24, while Daulton Varsho contributed a plus-8.4 WPA for the Blue Jays. On the mound, Kevin Gausman was the story for Toronto, posting a plus-21.1 WPA as the model's most valuable pitcher on the night, with Chad Green adding plus-5.0 in support.