MLB Recap · August 7, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

PHI9
Final
LAD4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI1000250019100
LAD220000000481

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies handed the Los Angeles Dodgers a 9-4 defeat at Dodger Stadium on August 7, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had pegged as a 52 percent pre-game home win probability for Los Angeles and reducing it to zero by the final out. The Dodgers actually drew first blood, plating two runs in the first inning off Tyler Phillips, and Freddie Freeman kept them in a favorable position with a two-run single in the bottom of the second — a swing that carried a win-probability impact of plus 10.9 percent — but Philadelphia chipped away before unleashing a decisive sequence in the fifth and sixth innings that effectively ended the contest.

Kyle Schwarber was the engine of the Phillies' comeback, finishing as the game's most impactful offensive player with a combined WPA of plus 51.7 percent and a RE24 of plus 6.7. He opened the damage with a double off Gavin Stone in the fifth, worth plus 10.9 percent in win probability, that helped Philadelphia score twice and pull even. Then, against Joe Kelly in the sixth inning, Schwarber delivered the knockout blow — a home run that swung the DiamondIQ model's win probability by plus 37.5 percent in Philadelphia's favor, the single biggest play of the game. The Phillies piled on in that same sixth frame, with Alec Bohm adding a double off Alex Vesia worth plus 8.5 percent and Brandon Marsh contributing a fielder's choice worth plus 8.6 percent as Philadelphia scored five runs in the inning to take a commanding lead.

Nick Castellanos provided additional offensive support, contributing plus 9.9 percent in WPA to close out a 10-hit, zero-error performance for Philadelphia. On the mound, the Phillies bullpen locked things down cleanly, with Orion Kerkering leading relief contributors at plus 4.1 percent WPA, followed by José Alvarado at plus 3.6 percent and Matt Strahm at plus 1.2 percent. Philadelphia's 9-4 final, built almost entirely on a five-inning burst of offense and Schwarber's dominance, left little doubt about which team controlled the evening at Dodger Stadium.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalLAD win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 51.7% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Kyle Schwarber Home Run
Top 6th · off Joe Kelly
+37.5%
Kyle Schwarber Double
Top 5th · off Gavin Stone
+10.9%
Freddie Freeman Single
Bot 2nd · off Tyler Phillips
+10.9%
Brandon Marsh Fielders Choice
Top 6th · off Alex Vesia
+8.6%
Alec Bohm Double
Top 6th · off Alex Vesia
+8.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Kyle Schwarber+51.7%+6.7 RE24
Nick Castellanos+9.9%+1.3 RE24
Freddie Freeman+9.3%+2.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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