Arizona Diamondbacks at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks defeated the Cleveland Guardians 7-3 at Progressive Field on August 7, 2024, handing the home team a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected starkly — Cleveland entered with a 59% pre-game win probability and finished at 0%. Arizona built its lead gradually, scoring in the second, fifth, eighth, and ninth innings while Brandon Pfaadt kept the Guardians contained enough to preserve the advantage throughout.

The fifth inning was the game's most consequential stretch by win-probability movement. Geraldo Perdomo had opened the scoring in the second with a home run off Ben Lively, worth 8.5% in win probability, but the fifth inning saw the game's two largest individual plays land in opposite directions within the same frame. Corbin Carroll's home run off Lively shifted Arizona's win probability by 13.3%, extending the cushion, while Brayan Rocchio answered with a double off Pfaadt that swung 14.3% back toward Cleveland. That momentum proved short-lived, however, as Bo Naylor hit into a double play off Pfaadt that erased 12.2% of the Guardians' win probability and effectively ended their best scoring threat. Eugenio Suarez added a double off Pedro Avila in the eighth for another 9.3% swing, closing out Cleveland's realistic path to a comeback.

Pfaadt was the game's most impactful individual performer, posting a WPA of plus-25.5% for Arizona's pitching staff, with Eli Morgan and A.J. Puk contributing 7.6% and 4.5% respectively in relief. Among position players, Ketel Marte led all batters at plus-11.3% WPA with a RE24 of plus-1.8, edging Carroll's plus-11.2% WPA showing. Rocchio was the top Guardians contributor at plus-10.1% WPA, though his efforts were ultimately insufficient against an Arizona club that committed no errors and collected seven hits across nine innings.