Milwaukee Brewers at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 5-3 on July 6, 2024, at Dodger Stadium, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 57% pre-game home win probability to a terminal 100% by the final out. The game turned most sharply in the eighth inning, where the two teams traded home runs in a sequence that effectively decided the outcome. Christian Yelich gave Milwaukee a brief surge with a solo home run off Evan Phillips that added 19.0% win probability to the Brewers' chances, momentarily tightening the contest. Los Angeles answered emphatically in the bottom half, as Miguel Vargas connected off Bryan Hudson for a home run worth 18.8% win probability, followed shortly by Shohei Ohtani adding another blast off Hudson that swung the game an additional 13.6% in the Dodgers' favor. Those two swings in the bottom eighth erased any Milwaukee momentum and put the game firmly out of reach.

Ohtani was the game's most impactful individual performer, finishing with a combined WPA of plus-23.6% and an RE24 of plus-2.4, leading all players on either side. Vargas contributed plus-18.8% WPA in his own right, while Yelich finished at plus-10.0% WPA despite his team's loss. Milwaukee's Rhys Hoskins had provided an earlier jolt with a fourth-inning home run off James Paxton worth 10.1% win probability, but Freddie Freeman's groundout in the bottom of that same inning off Freddy Peralta carried a negative swing of 6.7% for Los Angeles, keeping the game close into the later frames. On the pitching side, Bryse Wilson led all pitchers at plus-15.8% WPA, with Paxton and Blake Treinen each contributing meaningfully at plus-10.3% and plus-8.5% respectively. Los Angeles finished with nine hits and committed no errors, while Milwaukee's two errors factored into the final margin.