San Francisco Giants at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF | 3 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 6 | 0 |
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The San Francisco Giants handed the Cleveland Guardians a 4-2 defeat at Progressive Field on July 5, 2024, despite Cleveland entering the game as heavy favorites. The DiamondIQ model's estimate put the Guardians' pre-game home win probability at 67%, yet that figure collapsed to zero by the final out, a striking reversal driven largely by what happened in the very first inning. San Francisco scored three runs in the top of the first, and Cleveland never fully recovered, finishing with 11 hits against only 2 runs to show for it, a testament to how effectively the Giants' pitching staff stranded runners throughout the night.
The game's decisive swing came early and was amplified by Cleveland's inability to answer. Josh Naylor's grounded into double play in the bottom of the first cost the Guardians 13.1 percentage points of win probability off Erik Miller, erasing what could have been an immediate equalizing threat. Bo Naylor compounded the damage with a groundout in the second inning against Spencer Bivens that subtracted another 14.5 points, and he appeared again as a negative force in the eighth, grounding out against Tyler Rogers for a 16.4-point drop, the single largest win-probability swing of the contest. Cleveland did generate some offense in the sixth, when David Fry's double off Randy Rodríguez added 14.0 points and Andrés Giménez followed with a sacrifice fly, but those moments ultimately proved too little against a Giants squad that had already built its cushion.
On the individual ledger, Angel Martínez was the game's most impactful offensive contributor, posting a WPA of plus-18.0 and an RE24 of plus-1.2, while Brett Wisely added plus-12.9 WPA for San Francisco. Fry's plus-11.1 WPA represented the bright spot in an otherwise frustrating Cleveland lineup performance. The pitching honors belonged to the Giants' bullpen collective, with Spencer Bivens leading all pitchers at plus-17.0 WPA, Ryan Walker close behind at plus-16.8, and Tyler Rogers closing things out with a plus-13.3 contribution to seal the road victory.