MLB Recap · July 5, 2024

Los Angeles Angels at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

LAA1
Final
CHC5

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
LAA000010000120
CHC20101100-591

The Story

The Chicago Cubs defeated the Los Angeles Angels 5-1 at Wrigley Field on July 5, 2024, a result that aligned closely with the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 59 percent home-win probability, which ultimately climbed to 100 percent by the final out. Chicago broke the game open early, scoring two runs in the first inning and adding one in the third, building a commanding cushion that the Angels never seriously threatened. The Cubs finished with nine hits to the Angels' two, and while Los Angeles committed no errors, they simply could not generate any sustained offensive pressure against a dominant Justin Steele.

The decisive moments of the game were concentrated in the fifth inning, where the two most impactful plays of the night unfolded in sequence. Taylor Ward's single off Justin Steele in the top half represented the largest single win-probability swing of the game at plus 7.9 percent, briefly tightening the contest. Ian Happ answered immediately in the bottom half with a run-scoring single off Hunter Strickland worth plus 7.3 percent in win probability, effectively extinguishing any Angels momentum. Happ had already contributed a plus 7.0 percent single off Griffin Canning in the third inning, making him the game's most impactful offensive performer at plus 14.4 percent WPA and plus 1.6 RE24. Michael Busch added a key double off Canning in the fifth worth plus 4.6 percent, and Nico Hoerner's single in the sixth off Hans Crouse closed out the Cubs' scoring.

Justin Steele was the story on the mound, finishing with a model-leading plus 22.0 percent WPA that underscored just how thoroughly he controlled the Angels' lineup, limiting them to a single run and two hits across his outing. Ward and Busch each finished at plus 6.3 percent WPA for the Angels and Cubs respectively, though their contributions reflected vastly different outcomes. The DiamondIQ model favored the Cubs entering this contest, and Steele's performance ensured that lean was validated decisively.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025LAA bats firstFinalCHC win %LAA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 58.7% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Taylor Ward Single
Top 5th · off Justin Steele
+7.9%
Ian Happ Single
Bot 5th · off Hunter Strickland
+7.3%
Ian Happ Single
Bot 3rd · off Griffin Canning
+7.0%
Nico Hoerner Single
Bot 6th · off Hans Crouse
+4.8%
Michael Busch Double
Bot 5th · off Griffin Canning
+4.6%

Top Batters by WPA

Ian Happ+14.4%+1.6 RE24
Taylor Ward+6.3%+0.4 RE24
Michael Busch+6.3%+0.6 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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