Boston Red Sox at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox outlasted the Miami Marlins 6-5 in twelve innings at loanDepot park on July 4, 2024, completing a comeback that the DiamondIQ model had given just a 34 percent chance of happening before first pitch. Boston scored in the first and sixth before Miami answered with a two-run eighth to force extra innings, setting up a back-and-forth finish that swung dramatically in both directions over the final two frames.

The pivotal moment came in the bottom of the eleventh, when Jesús Sánchez launched a home run off Zack Kelly that shifted win probability by 55.0 percentage points in Miami's favor, giving the Marlins what appeared to be a decisive edge heading to the twelfth. But Boston responded immediately. Ceddanne Rafaela's single off Matt Andriese in the top of the twelfth added 32.0 percentage points to Boston's win probability, and Tyler O'Neill followed with a double that contributed another 20.3 points, helping the Red Sox push across two runs and reclaim the lead. Miami mounted one final threat in the bottom half, with Nick Fortes singling to generate a 24.5-point swing and Josh Bell's flyout representing the Marlins' last meaningful chance before Boston closed it out.

Sánchez led all position players with a WPA of plus-72.3 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.4 despite being on the losing side, a reflection of how dominant his eleventh-inning blow looked in the moment. O'Neill and Fortes followed at plus-38.4 and plus-35.5 WPA respectively. On the mound, Nick Pivetta was the standout for Boston, posting a WPA of plus-37.1, with Kyle Tyler and Tanner Scott also contributing positively at plus-18.7 and plus-13.5. The DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at zero percent for Miami, a fitting endpoint for a game that slipped away in the twelfth despite the Marlins holding the upper hand as late as the bottom of the eleventh.