Baltimore Orioles at Seattle Mariners: Final Score & Recap

The Seattle Mariners defeated the Baltimore Orioles 7-3 on July 4, 2024, at T-Mobile Park, turning what began as a close contest into a comfortable home win. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Seattle a 44 percent chance of winning, but that figure climbed steadily before reaching 100 percent by game's end as the Mariners pulled away with a decisive five-run seventh inning.

Baltimore briefly seized the momentum in the third inning when Gunnar Henderson hit a home run off Bryce Miller, a swing that shifted win probability 16.4 percent in the Orioles' favor and gave them the game's first lead. Seattle responded in the fifth, where Mitch Haniger drew a walk off Corbin Burnes to move the needle 12.5 percent toward the home side, and Julio Rodríguez followed immediately with a home run off Burnes worth another 12.4 percent swing, putting Seattle in front and fundamentally altering the game's trajectory. The seventh inning then served as the killshot: J.P. Crawford's two-base hit off Keegan Akin registered a 31.2 percent win-probability swing, the single largest play of the night, as part of a five-run frame that rendered the final three innings largely academic. Ryan Bliss's strikeout against Bryan Baker in that same inning represented the Orioles' best chance to limit the damage, carrying a negative 9.8 percent impact against Baltimore.

Crawford finished as the game's most valuable offensive contributor at plus-26.0 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, while Rodríguez added plus-19.9 percent WPA and a plus-1.2 RE24. Henderson led Baltimore's offensive effort at plus-16.2 percent WPA despite his team's loss. On the pitching side, Ryne Stanek paced Seattle's relievers with plus-8.3 percent WPA, and Austin Voth contributed plus-4.8 percent. Baltimore finished with ten hits but managed only three runs, while Seattle needed just seven hits to post seven, making efficiency the defining gap between the two sides.