Milwaukee Brewers at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 4-3 on July 4, 2024, at Coors Field, overcoming a pre-game DiamondIQ model estimate of just 30 percent in their favor to claim a final win probability of 100 percent. Colorado built its advantage early, with Charlie Blackmon's second-inning double off Tobias Myers adding 11.9 percent to the Rockies' win probability and setting the tone at home. The Rockies carried that early cushion through the middle frames despite Milwaukee's attempts to claw back.

The decisive swings came in the sixth inning, when the two teams traded critical blows. Jackson Chourio delivered a double off Anthony Molina in the top half that shifted win probability by plus 15.6 percent for Milwaukee, momentarily tightening the game. Colorado answered immediately in the bottom half when Jake Cave launched a home run off Tobias Myers, a swing worth plus 14.7 percent in win probability that effectively re-established Colorado's grip on the contest. Andruw Monasterio had provided Milwaukee life with a fourth-inning single off Cal Quantrill that added 11.4 percent, but the Brewers also hurt themselves with two errors on the night, finishing with an error total of two compared to none for Colorado.

On the individual ledger, Jake Cave led all position players with a WPA of plus 12.0 and an RE24 of plus 0.6, while Chourio paced Milwaukee batters with a WPA of plus 11.3 and an RE24 of plus 1.4. The pitching story belonged to Colorado's bullpen, where Jalen Beeks was the most impactful arm of the night at plus 22.9 percent WPA, followed by Cal Quantrill at plus 14.9 percent. The DiamondIQ model leans toward this outcome having been shaped most decisively by the back-to-back sixth-inning swings and Beeks's dominant relief contribution.