Arizona Diamondbacks at Los Angeles Dodgers: Final Score & Recap

The Los Angeles Dodgers rallied past the Arizona Diamondbacks 6-5 on July 2, 2024 at Dodger Stadium, completing a comeback that required the final out to seal it. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring the Dodgers at 67 percent and closed at 100 percent, but the path there was anything but smooth, as Arizona forced two separate lead changes and pushed into the ninth inning with a genuine chance to steal a road win.

The game's decisive sequence unfolded in the bottom of the ninth against Paul Sewald, who had entered protecting a 5-4 Arizona lead. Freddie Freeman opened the door with a double that shifted the DiamondIQ model's estimate by 38.8 percentage points, but it was Teoscar Hernández whose single delivered the winning run and produced the single largest win-probability swing of the night at plus 45.9 percent. That pair of plays erased what had been Arizona's most important contribution of the game: a Joc Pederson home run off Evan Phillips in the top of the ninth that swung the model by 38.4 percentage points and briefly gave the Diamondbacks a lead. The Dodgers had taken an early foothold with Shohei Ohtani's home run off Justin Martinez in the seventh, a plus-26.4 percent swing that reclaimed momentum after Christian Walker's two-run shot off Bobby Miller in the fourth had given Arizona its first real push.

Hernández finished as the game's most impactful individual at plus 54.1 percent WPA and plus 2.5 RE24, numbers that reflected both his walk-off single and his contributions elsewhere in the lineup. Freeman added plus 37.7 percent WPA on the strength of his ninth-inning double, while Pederson's pinch-hit home run gave him plus 37.1 percent WPA despite ultimately ending up on the losing side of the ledger. On the pitching side, Ryne Nelson led Arizona starters with plus 11.7 percent WPA, supported by Kevin Ginkel at plus 10.9 percent, though neither could prevent the Dodgers from finding a way home in the final frame.