San Diego Padres at Boston Red Sox: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SD | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 0 |
| BOS | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | - | 4 | 8 | 0 |
The Story
The Boston Red Sox defeated the San Diego Padres 4-1 at Fenway Park on June 30, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Boston victory climbing from a pre-game 54% to a final 100% as the Red Sox built an unassailable lead across the middle innings. Boston scored twice in the first inning, added a run in the third, and extended the margin further in the fifth, while San Diego managed its only run in the seventh, long after the game had effectively been decided.
The decisive swings in win probability belonged overwhelmingly to San Diego's inability to convert opportunities against starter Josh Winckowski. Luis Arraez grounded into a double play in the third inning, the single most damaging play of the game at -8.1% win probability for the Padres. Kyle Higashioka's groundout in the second cost San Diego another 7.8%, and Manny Machado's double-play ball in the fourth surrendered an additional 7.6%. Those three plays alone erased any meaningful path back for the visitors. On the Boston side, Jarren Duran's home run off Matt Waldron in the fifth added 5.5% to the Red Sox win probability and effectively closed the door.
Winckowski was the defining performer of the afternoon, finishing with a game-high +21.9% WPA as he repeatedly extinguished Padres threats. Among position players, Enmanuel Valdez led all batters at +8.4% WPA, with Rafael Devers contributing +5.2% WPA and a game-best +1.5 RE24. For San Diego, Jackson Merrill posted +6.9% WPA as one of the few bright spots in an otherwise quiet offensive effort that produced eight hits but just a single run.