Houston Astros at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 10 | 15 | 0 |
| NYM | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 0 |
The Story
The Houston Astros defeated the New York Mets 10-5 in eleven innings at Citi Field on June 30, 2024, rallying from a late deficit to hand New York a loss the DiamondIQ model had given just a 0% chance of occurring by game's end. Houston held leads of 4-0 through five innings before the Mets began chipping away, and the game remained in doubt deep into extra innings before the Astros put it away with a five-run eleventh.
The most pivotal sequence of the contest belonged to the Mets' Brandon Nimmo, whose performances in the seventh and tenth innings represented the two largest single-play win-probability swings of the night. His home run off Bryan Abreu in the bottom of the seventh shifted win probability by 31.4 percentage points in New York's favor, and his double off Tayler Scott in the bottom of the tenth moved the needle even further, adding 44.1 percentage points and giving the Mets their best position of the night. Nimmo finished as the game's highest-impact batter by a wide margin, accumulating a combined WPA of plus-79.0 percent with a RE24 of plus-3.4. However, Alex Bregman's flyout in the top of the tenth, which carried a win-probability value of plus-16.6 percentage points from Houston's perspective, helped prevent the Mets from closing it out. The Astros then erupted for five runs in the eleventh against Matt Festa, with Yainer Diaz delivering a key single worth plus-25.1 percentage points and Jake Meyers adding another worth plus-17.6, effectively ending New York's chances.
On the mound, Adrian Houser led Houston's pitching staff with a WPA of plus-24.1 percent, followed by Shawn Dubin at plus-14.1 percent and Ryan Pressly at plus-10.9 percent. The Astros finished with 15 hits against New York's five, and Trey Cabbage contributed a WPA of plus-22.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-2.3 to support the offensive surge. The DiamondIQ model had entered the game favoring the Mets at 53% and saw those odds completely evaporate as Houston's eleven-inning outburst proved decisive.