Miami Marlins at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 1 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | - | 2 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Philadelphia Phillies blanked the Miami Marlins 2-0 at Citizens Bank Park on June 28, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Philadelphia win beginning at 81% before first pitch and closing at 100%. The Phillies manufactured their offense in quiet doses, pushing one run across in the fifth inning and another in the eighth, while Miami managed just three hits and committed one error across nine innings.
The game's most consequential swing came in the bottom of the second, when Whit Merrifield grounded out against Kyle Tyler in a spot that shed 10.5% of Philadelphia's win probability, representing the night's single biggest probability movement in either direction. Ali Sánchez erased further Miami opportunity in the top of the third by grounding into a double play off Cristopher Sánchez, a sequence that cost the Marlins 8.0% in win probability. The Marlins' most meaningful threat materialized in the top of the eighth, when Otto Lopez singled off Cristopher Sánchez to nudge Miami's chances upward by 7.9%, but Emmanuel Rivera immediately followed with a pop out that gave back 7.3%, effectively ending any realistic path to a comeback.
On the pitching side, Cristopher Sánchez was the evening's dominant force, contributing a model-leading plus-39.8% in win probability added, while Kyle Tyler supported him with a plus-21.2% mark and Declan Cronin added plus-13.1% in relief. At the plate, Garrett Stubbs led Philadelphia's contributors with plus-7.6% WPA and a 0.7 RE24, and Brandon Marsh added plus-5.2% WPA alongside a 0.9 RE24, giving the Phillies the most efficient offensive profile in a tightly controlled, low-scoring victory.