Houston Astros at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Houston Astros 7-2 on June 28, 2024, at Citi Field, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 55 percent pre-game home win probability all the way to 100 percent by the final out. The Mets and Astros traded runs in the first inning and Houston added another in the third on a Jeremy Peña single off Jose Quintana that carried a +9.7 percent win-probability swing, giving the Astros a brief foothold. The game's decisive turn came in the bottom of the sixth, when the Mets erupted for four runs against Ronel Blanco, with Tyrone Taylor's home run in the fourth having already laid the groundwork at +12.1 percent. Jeff McNeil's home run in the sixth was the single largest win-probability play of the night at +23.7 percent, followed immediately by Pete Alonso's home run off the same pitcher at +14.7 percent, a back-to-back sequence that effectively sealed the outcome. Houston's best chance to respond was extinguished when Joey Loperfido grounded into a double play in the top of the sixth against Dedniel Núñez, a play that swung win probability by -10.6 percent against the Astros.

McNeil finished as the top performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, posting a +24.3 percent WPA and a +3.0 RE24, reflecting his outsized impact on the run environment. Yordan Alvarez was Houston's most productive bat at +13.5 percent WPA and +1.4 RE24, though the Astros' 12 hits ultimately went for nothing against a Mets bullpen that locked things down. Adam Ottavino led all pitchers with a +10.8 percent WPA, and Dedniel Núñez contributed +10.0 percent, with the two relievers combining to protect the Mets' advantage through the game's later innings. New York added an insurance run in the eighth to finalize the 7-2 margin.