Minnesota Twins at Arizona Diamondbacks: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks edged the Minnesota Twins 5-4 at Chase Field on June 25, 2024, in a game that remained tight before a pair of pivotal seventh-inning sequences settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the night assigning each team roughly equal footing at a 49 percent home win probability for Arizona, but by the final out that figure had climbed to 100 percent in the D-backs' favor.

The decisive stretch came in the seventh inning, where the game's two largest win-probability swings played out in back-to-back half-innings. Ryan Jeffers delivered the most impactful single swing of the night for Minnesota, connecting on a home run off Brandon Pfaadt that shifted win probability by plus-32.9 percent in the Twins' direction and briefly gave the visitors momentum. Arizona answered immediately in the bottom half when Ketel Marte singled off Jorge Alcala, a hit that swung win probability plus-16.1 percent back toward the home side and helped the D-backs retake control. Marte finished as the game's top performer by WPA at plus-27.7 percent to go along with a plus-2.3 RE24, with his contributions spread across multiple plate appearances including a second-inning flyout that registered plus-8.5 percent. Jeffers ended at plus-21.7 percent WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, though his ninth-inning lineout off Paul Sewald represented the largest negative swing of the game at minus-10.9 percent, extinguishing a late Minnesota rally that had seen Byron Buxton contribute a plus-7.9 percent double in the same frame.

On the mound, Sewald headlined Arizona's relief effort with a plus-15.2 percent WPA, closing out the game despite facing pressure, while Ryan Thompson and Kevin Ginkel added plus-10.8 and plus-4.5 percent respectively to preserve the one-run margin. Minnesota left the door ajar with a three-run seventh but could not complete the comeback, finishing with six hits against Arizona's eight.