Washington Nationals at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The San Diego Padres defeated the Washington Nationals 9-7 at Petco Park on June 25, 2024, a game the DiamondIQ model entered favoring the home side at 57% and closed at 100% as San Diego pulled away in the middle innings. Washington briefly threatened to steal control in the third when Jesse Winker's home run off Adam Mazur swung win probability 18.3 points in the Nationals' favor, and a Lane Thomas triple earlier in that same frame added another 11.1 points, giving Washington a 4-0 lead through three. San Diego, however, answered with a pivotal fifth inning that proved to be the decisive sequence of the game.

The Padres' comeback was punctuated by a pair of big moments against MacKenzie Gore in the bottom of the fifth. Luis Arraez opened the rally with a triple worth plus-8.8 win-probability points, and Donovan Solano followed with a single that swung the model 28.3 points toward San Diego — the single largest win-probability shift of the night. Solano finished as the game's top performer by the DiamondIQ model's estimate, accumulating plus-31.1 WPA and plus-1.9 RE24 on the night. Jurickson Profar then extended the lead in the sixth with a home run off Derek Law worth plus-18.0 win-probability points, and San Diego never relinquished the advantage. On the mound, Wandy Peralta led Padres relievers with plus-7.3 WPA as the bullpen secured the final outs to close out Washington's late push of two runs in the eighth and one in the ninth.