MLB Recap · June 24, 2024

Philadelphia Phillies at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

PHI8
Final
DET1

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
PHI4000030108150
DET000010000171

The Story

The Philadelphia Phillies handed the Detroit Tigers an 8-1 defeat at Comerica Park on June 24, 2024, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected just how complete the victory was, with Detroit's pre-game win probability sitting at 33% and collapsing all the way to 0% by the final out. Philadelphia struck hard in the first inning, plating four runs to seize control immediately, and never surrendered that lead. The Tigers managed their lone run in the fifth, but the Phillies answered with three more in the sixth to put the game firmly out of reach, finishing with 15 hits against no errors while Detroit committed one and managed only seven hits across nine innings.

The single most decisive moment came in the top of the sixth when Bryce Harper connected on a home run off Tyler Holton, a swing that added 13.2% in win probability and proved to be the backbreaker. Detroit's most notable defensive contribution came in the bottom of the third, when Matt Vierling grounded into a triple play off Aaron Nola, a sequence that swung win probability by 10.8% against the Tigers and effectively ended any realistic path back into the game. Carson Kelly provided Detroit's modest bright spot, his fifth-inning single off Nola adding 6.7% in win probability for the home side, but it was not nearly enough to alter the outcome.

Individually, Nola was the standout performer of the evening, finishing with a team-leading plus-20.1% in win probability added, dominating Detroit's lineup with early strikeouts from Riley Greene and Justyn-Henry Malloy helping suppress any threat before it developed. Harper led all position players with a plus-19.0% WPA and plus-3.3 RE24, driven largely by his decisive sixth-inning blast. Carson Kelly's plus-10.0% WPA led Detroit's contributors, while Zach McKinstry added plus-5.2% for Philadelphia. The DiamondIQ model leans toward crediting Nola's command and Harper's power as the twin engines behind a dominant road performance.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025PHI bats firstFinalDET win %PHI win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 33.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Bryce Harper Home Run
Top 6th · off Tyler Holton
+13.2%
Matt Vierling Triple Play
Bot 3rd · off Aaron Nola
-10.8%
Carson Kelly Single
Bot 5th · off Aaron Nola
+6.7%
Justyn-Henry Malloy Strikeout
Bot 2nd · off Aaron Nola
-6.6%
Riley Greene Strikeout
Bot 1st · off Aaron Nola
-4.5%

Top Batters by WPA

Bryce Harper+19.0%+3.3 RE24
Carson Kelly+10.0%+1.2 RE24
Zach McKinstry+5.2%+0.5 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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