Seattle Mariners at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays defeated the Seattle Mariners 4-3 on June 24, 2024, at Tropicana Field in a game that turned dramatically in the bottom of the eighth inning. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with a nearly even split, estimating a 48 percent pre-game win probability for Tampa Bay, but that figure climbed to 100 percent by the final out as the Rays erased a deficit with a three-run eighth.

Seattle appeared poised to hold on after Mitch Garver's seventh-inning home run off Chris Devenski gave the Mariners a 3-1 lead, a swing that added 23.3 percent to Seattle's win probability according to the DiamondIQ model. Cal Raleigh had earlier provided the Mariners their first lead with a fourth-inning home run off Taj Bradley, a play worth 11.6 percent in win-probability terms. Those leads proved short-lived. In the bottom of the eighth, Tampa Bay mounted its decisive rally against Seattle's bullpen, with Ben Rortvedt delivering a double off Austin Voth that swung win probability by 20.0 percent, and Yandy Díaz following with a single off Andrés Muñoz that shifted the game's outcome by 37.3 percent — the single most impactful play of the night.

Díaz finished as the game's top batter by WPA at plus 29.4 percent with a RE24 of plus 1.0, while Raleigh posted a plus 13.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus 1.2 despite being on the losing side. On the mound, Pete Fairbanks led all pitchers with a plus 15.2 percent WPA, followed by Trent Thornton at plus 14.0 percent and Taj Bradley at plus 11.0 percent, each helping Tampa Bay strand Seattle's offense to just three hits on the evening.