New York Mets at Chicago Cubs: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Chicago Cubs 5-2 at Wrigley Field on June 23, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate traced from a 53 percent pre-game home win probability all the way down to zero. The Mets built their advantage early and protected it late, with the game's decisive sequences concentrated in the third inning and preserved through strong pitching work the rest of the way.

The third inning was the turning point of the contest by a wide margin. Francisco Lindor delivered the single most impactful play of the game, connecting on a home run off Javier Assad that shifted win probability by plus-16.5 percent in the Mets' favor. Brandon Nimmo followed in the same inning with a home run off Assad as well, adding another plus-9.0 percent swing and capping a three-run frame that gave New York a lead it would not relinquish. The Cubs offered their most meaningful response in the bottom of the seventh, when Christopher Morel hit a home run off Dedniel Núñez to close the gap temporarily, a swing worth plus-15.2 percent from Chicago's perspective. Mark Vientos answered in the top of the eighth with a solo home run off Tyson Miller, a plus-10.5 percent play that effectively sealed the outcome.

Among position players, Lindor finished as the game's top contributor by WPA at plus-16.3 percent with a RE24 of plus-1.0, while Nimmo posted plus-12.2 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.2. Morel was the Cubs' standout with plus-11.1 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.1 despite the losing effort. On the mound, Luis Severino was the most impactful pitcher in the game, finishing with a WPA of plus-24.5 percent for New York, with Reed Garrett and Drew Smith contributing plus-5.2 and plus-2.2 percent respectively in support. The two Chicago errors factored into the final run differential, and the Cubs were unable to recover from the deficit Lindor and Nimmo created against Assad in the third.