Boston Red Sox at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap

The Boston Red Sox held off the Cincinnati Reds 4-3 at Great American Ball Park on June 22, 2024, completing a comeback that unfolded almost entirely in the final two innings. Cincinnati jumped ahead early, scoring twice in the first inning and adding another run in the third to build a 3-0 lead, but Boston answered with single runs in the fifth and sixth before breaking the game open in the eighth. Rafael Devers delivered the decisive blow in that frame, a sacrifice fly off Lucas Sims that carried a win-probability swing of +21.7% according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate, pushing Boston to a 4-3 lead. Singles from Jarren Duran (+11.4%) and Ceddanne Rafaela (+11.8%) off Justin Wilson set the table for that go-ahead sequence, making the eighth inning the clear turning point of the contest.

Kenley Jansen closed out the ninth, and the game's single most consequential play came right there: Elly De La Cruz's flyout to end the game registered a +27.0% win-probability swing, reflecting just how dangerous that final at-bat felt with Cincinnati threatening. De La Cruz finished as the game's top batter by WPA at +40.4%, a figure that captures both his threat in that climactic moment and his earlier contributions with Cincinnati's 11-hit attack. Despite going 0-for-the-game in terms of the final out, his overall presence on the field had the DiamondIQ model's estimate fluctuating significantly throughout. Chris Martin was the top performer among pitchers, posting a +23.3% WPA that anchored the Boston bullpen effort, highlighted by his strikeout of Nick Martini in the bottom of the eighth — a pivotal out that prevented Cincinnati from reclaiming the lead and swung win probability by 18.7%. Frankie Montas and Sam Moll also contributed positively as Boston's staff held Cincinnati's lineup to no runs over the final four innings.