Washington Nationals at Colorado Rockies: Final Score & Recap

The Colorado Rockies edged the Washington Nationals 8-7 at Coors Field on June 22, 2024, in a back-and-forth contest that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home win begin at 40% before finishing at 100% as Colorado closed out the victory. The Rockies grabbed an early edge with Brendan Rodgers connecting on a home run off Mitchell Parker in the bottom of the third, a swing that shifted win probability by 24.2 points and helped stake Colorado to a 3-2 lead through three innings. Washington answered with a Luis García Jr. home run off Justin Lawrence in the top of the eighth — the single largest swing in favor of the Nationals at plus-28.8% — pulling the Nationals back in front, before Ryan McMahon countered almost immediately with a home run off Hunter Harvey in the bottom half, a plus-18.8% swing that kept Colorado within reach heading to the ninth.

The decisive moment arrived in the bottom of the ninth when Brenton Doyle delivered a walk-off single off Kyle Finnegan, producing the game's largest individual win-probability swing at plus-36.5% and sealing the 8-7 final. Doyle finished as one of the three standout performers by the DiamondIQ model's metrics, posting a plus-28.3% WPA on the night. CJ Abrams led all Nationals batters with a plus-33.3% WPA and plus-2.3 RE24, his go-ahead single off Jake Bird in the top of the seventh generating a plus-19.3% swing, though that lead proved short-lived. Ryan McMahon paced Colorado's offensive contributors with a plus-27.6% WPA and a game-high plus-2.6 RE24. Among pitchers, Jalen Beeks and Hunter Harvey each posted plus-4.5% WPA for their respective clubs, with Cal Quantrill adding plus-4.2% in a Colorado bullpen effort that held just long enough to secure the win.