Toronto Blue Jays at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap

The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 6-3 at Progressive Field on June 22, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model's estimate moving from a 72% pre-game home win probability all the way to 100% by the final out. Cleveland built its advantage through a sequence of home runs that steadily pushed Toronto out of contention, as starter Ben Lively received early offensive support before the Blue Jays ever had a chance to establish consistent pressure.

The game's decisive stretch came in the second and third innings, where Cleveland turned a neutral contest into a commanding lead. Bo Naylor's home run off José Berríos in the bottom of the second shifted win probability by 13.3 points in Cleveland's favor, and José Ramírez followed in the bottom of the third with a home run off Berríos that added another 18.1 points, the single largest swing of the game. Toronto briefly responded when Isiah Kiner-Falefa hit a home run off Ben Lively in the top of the third, a swing worth plus 10.6 points that represented the Blue Jays' most meaningful moment of the afternoon. Steven Kwan extended the Cleveland cushion further with a home run off Berríos in the bottom of the fifth, adding 8.1 points to the Guardians' probability. A Vladimir Guerrero Jr. strikeout against Hunter Gaddis in the top of the eighth, costing Toronto 8.9 points of win probability, effectively closed the door on any comeback attempt.

On the individual ledger, Kiner-Falefa finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 19.6 with a RE24 of plus 2.1, while Ramírez posted plus 16.2 WPA and Naylor contributed plus 11.1 WPA with a RE24 of plus 1.3. On the mound, Gaddis led Cleveland's relievers with plus 9.6 WPA, followed by Cade Smith at plus 6.7 and Emmanuel Clase at plus 2.4 as the Guardians secured the comfortable win.