Tampa Bay Rays at Pittsburgh Pirates: Final Score & Recap

The Tampa Bay Rays handed the Pittsburgh Pirates a 10-3 defeat at PNC Park on June 21, 2024, pounding out 17 hits while holding Pittsburgh to just 5. The DiamondIQ model entered the game with Pittsburgh holding a 53% pre-game win probability, but that edge evaporated quickly and fell to 0% by the final out as Tampa Bay seized control across multiple innings.

The decisive moments belonged to Josh Lowe, whose two home runs off Luis Ortiz defined the game's win-probability arc. His first, a solo shot in the third inning, added 10.4 percentage points to Tampa Bay's win probability. His second, struck in the sixth, was the single most impactful play of the night at plus-19.9 percentage points, effectively closing the door on any Pittsburgh comeback. The Pirates' best opportunity to shift momentum came in the bottom of the fourth, when Jack Suwinski's double off Ryan Pepiot swung win probability 13.4 points in Pittsburgh's favor. However, Andrew McCutchen immediately erased that gain by grounding into a double play off Colin Poche, a swing of negative 13.4 percentage points that stalled the rally before it could develop. Brandon Lowe added a single off Ortiz in the top of the fourth worth 6.6 points, and Tampa Bay tacked on three more runs in the ninth to finalize the margin.

Josh Lowe finished as the game's top performer with a combined WPA of plus-28.6 and an RE24 of plus-3.2, numbers that reflected how consistently damaging his at-bats were in high-leverage situations. Yandy Díaz contributed plus-10.1 WPA, while Suwinski's double kept him at plus-9.7 despite the inning's disappointing conclusion. On the mound, Colin Poche led Tampa Bay's relievers with a WPA of plus-20.0, benefiting directly from inducing the McCutchen double play that neutralized Pittsburgh's fourth-inning threat.