Arizona Diamondbacks at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AZ | 0 | 1 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 5 | 9 | 0 |
| PHI | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 7 | 1 |
The Story
The Arizona Diamondbacks edged the Philadelphia Phillies 5-4 at Citizens Bank Park on June 21, 2024, handing Philadelphia a loss despite the DiamondIQ model entering the game with a 69% win probability in favor of the home side. Arizona scored in bunches early, plating one in the second and three in the third, then added an insurance run in the eighth before holding off a late Phillies push. The decisive moments swung sharply on a handful of critical plays, and Arizona's bullpen ultimately secured the final out against a dangerous Phillies lineup.
The game turned on two pivotal sequences. In the bottom of the seventh, Bryce Harper grounded into a double play off Joe Mantiply, a play the DiamondIQ model registered as a 24.2% swing in Arizona's favor, effectively stalling a Philadelphia rally. Philadelphia answered in the eighth when Nick Castellanos drove a home run off Ryan Thompson, an 18.2% win-probability swing that pulled the Phillies within striking distance. Arizona responded immediately as Geraldo Perdomo singled off Seranthony Dominguez in the top of the eighth, a 16.1% swing that pushed the lead back to two. Then in the bottom of the ninth, with the game still in question, Paul Sewald induced a groundout from Kyle Schwarber, a play worth 31.6% in win probability to the Diamondbacks and the single most impactful moment of the night.
Among the top individual performers, Schwarber finished as the highest-impact batter by the DiamondIQ model's estimate despite the unfavorable result, posting a cumulative WPA of plus-40.1% with a RE24 of plus-0.3, reflecting how often he put Philadelphia in favorable run-expectancy situations throughout the night. Trea Turner was the Phillies' most productive offensive contributor at plus-25.9% WPA and plus-2.5 RE24. On the Arizona side, Gabriel Moreno delivered a third-inning home run off Taijuan Walker that registered a 16.7% win-probability swing and finished with a WPA of plus-15.3% and RE24 of plus-1.4. Starting pitcher Jordan Montgomery led all pitchers with a plus-25.2% WPA, and Spencer Turnbull added plus-12.9% out of the bullpen, making the Arizona pitching staff collectively the backbone of the victory.