Milwaukee Brewers at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 1 |
| SD | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 1 | - | 9 | 15 | 4 |
The Story
The San Diego Padres defeated the Milwaukee Brewers 9-5 on June 21, 2024, at Petco Park, turning what appeared to be a competitive game into a decisive home victory. The DiamondIQ model entered with San Diego holding a 46 percent pre-game win probability, and by game's end that figure had climbed to 100 percent as the Padres authored a sustained mid-game takeover that the Brewers could not answer.
The fifth inning served as the pivot point for the entire contest. Milwaukee struck first in the top half, with William Contreras drawing a single off Dylan Cease that swung win probability 15.6 percent in the Brewers' favor, briefly suggesting the visitors might seize control. The Padres answered immediately in the bottom half, with Luis Arraez driving a home run off Colin Rea that swung the model's estimate back 20.6 percent toward San Diego, effectively erasing Milwaukee's momentum. The Padres continued the assault in the sixth, as Jake Cronenworth connected on another home run off Rea worth 15.3 percent in win probability, and a subsequent Donovan Solano single off Jared Koenig added another 13.2 percent swing, putting the game firmly out of reach. Cronenworth added yet another key single in the seventh off Hoby Milner, contributing a further 12.9 percent shift.
Individually, Cronenworth was the game's most impactful performer by the DiamondIQ model's accounting, finishing with a cumulative WPA of plus-34.2 percent and a RE24 of plus-2.8, driven by his home run and two critical situational hits. Solano contributed meaningfully as well at plus-20.5 percent WPA and plus-1.8 RE24, while Arraez posted plus-11.2 percent WPA on the strength of his fifth-inning blast. On the pitching side, Enyel De Los Santos led San Diego's relievers with a plus-6.7 percent WPA contribution. Milwaukee finished with 11 hits but committed one error, while the Padres, despite four errors of their own, generated 15 hits and proved far more capable of converting their opportunities.