MLB Recap · June 20, 2024

Tampa Bay Rays at Minnesota Twins: Final Score & Recap

TB7
Final
MIN6

Line Score

Team12345678910RHE
TB01100001317110
MIN01100000406100

The Story

The Tampa Bay Rays edged the Minnesota Twins 7-6 in ten innings on June 20, 2024, at Target Field, erasing what had appeared to be a near-certain Twins victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Minnesota holding a 61% pre-game win probability, and that edge looked well-founded heading into the ninth inning before the game unraveled dramatically for the home side.

The decisive swing came in the bottom of the ninth when Jose Miranda connected on a home run off Pete Fairbanks, a blow that carried a win-probability impact of plus-47.8% and seemingly handed Minnesota control of the game. That single swing moved Miranda to a game-high plus-39.6% WPA and plus-2.0 RE24 on the night. However, the Rays answered directly in the top of the tenth, where Jonny DeLuca singled off Griffin Jax for a plus-37.4% swing that put Tampa Bay back in front. Carlos Santana's flyout in the bottom of the tenth, a plus-27.0% WPA moment off Fairbanks, ultimately proved the game's final meaningful plate appearance as Minnesota failed to complete the comeback. Ryan Jeffers had cost the Twins momentum an inning earlier, striking out against Kevin Kelly in a minus-22.1% WPA moment that loomed large in retrospect.

On the mound, Kevin Kelly was the Rays' most valuable arm, finishing with a plus-32.7% WPA, followed by Shawn Armstrong at plus-15.3% and Zack Littell at plus-8.6%. Royce Lewis contributed offensively for Minnesota with a plus-31.1% WPA and plus-1.2 RE24, but the Twins' bullpen could not hold the lead through extras, and Tampa Bay left Target Field with the improbable road victory.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025TB bats firstFinalMIN win %TB win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 60.5% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Jose F Miranda Home Run
Bot 9th · off Pete Fairbanks
+47.8%
Jonny DeLuca Single
Top 10th · off Griffin Jax
+37.4%
Carlos Santana Flyout
Bot 10th · off Pete Fairbanks
+27.0%
Ryan Jeffers Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Kevin Kelly
-22.1%
Amed Rosario Double
Top 8th · off Steven Okert
+15.0%

Top Batters by WPA

Jose F Miranda+39.6%+2.0 RE24
Carlos Santana+34.3%+1.4 RE24
Royce Lewis+31.1%+1.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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