MLB Recap · June 17, 2024

St. Louis Cardinals at Miami Marlins: Final Score & Recap

STL7
Final
MIA6

Line Score

Team123456789101112RHE
STL0000100300127100
MIA000001030011681

The Story

The St. Louis Cardinals edged the Miami Marlins 7-6 in twelve innings on June 17, 2024, at loanDepot park, completing a comeback against a team the DiamondIQ model had entering the game with only a 35 percent chance of winning at home. The game remained scoreless through four innings before slowly unraveling into one of the more volatile contests of the season, with the decisive action concentrated in the eighth and twelfth frames.

The eighth inning was the first major turning point in either direction. Iván Herrera delivered a triple off Calvin Faucher that swung win probability 32.1 points in St. Louis's favor, fueling a three-run Cardinals half-inning. Miami answered immediately in the bottom half when Bryan De La Cruz launched a home run off JoJo Romero, a swing worth 45.5 percentage points and the single largest positive impact for any Miami batter on the night. That exchange knotted the game and sent it into extra innings. In the twelfth, Masyn Winn broke the deadlock with a home run off A.J. Puk, a 33.7-point swing that gave St. Louis a lead it would not surrender. Miami mounted one final threat when Nick Gordon's triple off Andrew Kittredge added 49.8 points to Miami's win probability, but Tim Anderson followed with a double play that erased 53.7 points of that equity in a single at-bat, ending the game and dropping Miami's win probability to zero.

Among the top performers by WPA, Otto Lopez led all batters at plus 44.3 percent, though his RE24 of minus 0.3 reflected limited run-environment impact. Brendan Donovan posted both a strong WPA of plus 43.4 and an RE24 of plus 2.2, making him the Cardinals' most complete offensive contributor by the DiamondIQ model's estimate. Nick Gordon's plus 40.1 WPA stood as Miami's best individual performance despite the team's defeat. On the mound, Braxton Garrett led all pitchers at plus 22.7 WPA, followed by Sonny Gray at plus 19.0 and Tanner Scott at plus 13.5, all working in favor of St. Louis as the Cardinals ultimately prevailed in a game that required twelve innings and featured multiple momentum reversals to decide.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025STL bats firstFinalMIA win %STL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 34.9% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Tim Anderson Double Play
Bot 12th · off Andrew Kittredge
-53.7%
Nick Gordon Triple
Bot 12th · off Andrew Kittredge
+49.8%
Bryan De La Cruz Home Run
Bot 8th · off JoJo Romero
+45.5%
Masyn Winn Home Run
Top 12th · off A.J. Puk
+33.7%
Iván Herrera Triple
Top 8th · off Calvin Faucher
+32.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Otto Lopez+44.3%-0.3 RE24
Brendan Donovan+43.4%+2.2 RE24
Nick Gordon+40.1%+1.1 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
Open Game Center →