Detroit Tigers at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 2 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 13 | 19 | 0 |
| HOU | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 10 | 1 |
The Story
The Detroit Tigers routed the Houston Astros 13-5 at Minute Maid Park on June 15, 2024, delivering a dominant performance from the opening inning that left the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a Houston win dropping from 50 percent before first pitch all the way to zero percent by the final out. Detroit plated runs in the first three innings and again in the sixth, eighth, and ninth, finishing with 19 hits and no errors while Houston committed one. The game was effectively decided early, as the Tigers scored two in the first, six in the second, and two more in the third to build a 10-0 lead through three innings that Houston never seriously threatened to overcome.
The second inning was the decisive turning point by win-probability measures. Carson Kelly's groundout with runners on base added 11.8 percent to Detroit's win probability against Shawn Dubin, the most impactful single plate appearance of the game in terms of run-environment context, and Riley Greene followed with a home run off Spencer Arrighetti that added another 6.4 percent. On the other side, Mauricio Dubón's flyout against Jack Flaherty in the bottom of the second swung 12.6 percent against Houston, extinguishing any hope of a rally before it began. Yordan Alvarez similarly went quietly in the first, his flyout off Flaherty costing the Astros 5.1 percent in win probability.
Jack Flaherty was the standout performer of the night, leading all players with a WPA of plus-19.0 percent as he stifled Houston's lineup and kept the game firmly in Detroit's control. Riley Greene finished as the top offensive contributor by RE24 at plus-5.6, while Kelly led all batters in WPA at plus-14.2 percent. Justyn-Henry Malloy contributed plus-3.6 percent WPA despite a strikeout in the first that, by suppressing damage in a productive inning, registered as a net positive for Detroit's win odds. The DiamondIQ model favored neither side before game time, but the Tigers made the outcome unambiguous with ruthless efficiency over the first three frames.