MLB Recap · June 14, 2024

Miami Marlins at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

MIA1
Final
WSH8

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIA010000000172
WSH00700100-8121

The Story

The Washington Nationals handed the Miami Marlins an 8-1 defeat at Nationals Park on June 14, 2024, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate tracked steadily toward certainty after opening with a 68% pre-game home win probability and finishing at 100%. Washington scored all but one of its runs in a decisive third inning that effectively ended any competitive tension the game might have carried.

The third inning was the turning point in full, and Lane Thomas was at the center of it. His home run off Shaun Anderson in the bottom of the third was the single biggest swing of the contest, adding 24.2% to Washington's win probability and punctuating a seven-run frame that put the Marlins out of reach. Eddie Rosario's double and CJ Abrams' single earlier in the inning each contributed 6.7% in win probability, while Joey Meneses added a single worth 5.7%. The only notable momentum check came in the bottom of the second, when Nick Senzel grounded into a forceout off Anderson, a play that subtracted 8.9% from Washington's probability at a moment when the home side had yet to score.

By the final numbers, Thomas was Washington's most valuable offensive contributor, finishing with a WPA of plus 24.4% and a RE24 of plus 1.9. Abrams was close behind at plus 8.8% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.0, while Jake Burger added plus 6.3% WPA on the night. Miami's pitching staff, led on the mound by Anderson and Brazobán, absorbed the bulk of the damage, as Washington scattered 12 hits against a Marlins club that committed two errors and managed only seven hits in a lopsided loss.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIA bats firstFinalWSH win %MIA win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 68.3% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Lane Thomas Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Shaun Anderson
+24.2%
Nick Senzel Forceout
Bot 2nd · off Shaun Anderson
-8.9%
Eddie Rosario Double
Bot 3rd · off Shaun Anderson
+6.7%
CJ Abrams Single
Bot 3rd · off Huascar Brazobán
+6.7%
Joey Meneses Single
Bot 3rd · off Shaun Anderson
+5.7%

Top Batters by WPA

Lane Thomas+24.4%+1.9 RE24
CJ Abrams+8.8%+2.0 RE24
Jake Burger+6.3%-0.0 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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