Chicago Cubs at Tampa Bay Rays: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 0 |
| TB | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 7 | 0 |
The Story
The Chicago Cubs held off the Tampa Bay Rays 4-3 at Tropicana Field on June 12, 2024, in a game that remained tightly contested through six innings before a pivotal seventh inning swing decided the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the game giving Tampa Bay a 53% chance of winning, but that probability collapsed to zero by the final out as Chicago secured the road victory.
The decisive moment came in the top of the seventh when Cody Bellinger connected on a home run off Garrett Cleavinger, a swing the DiamondIQ model calculated as a +42.1% win-probability shift and the single largest play of the game. That blast was part of a three-run Cubs seventh that broke a 1-1 tie and gave Chicago the cushion it needed. Bellinger finished as the game's top performer by a wide margin, posting a +36.6% WPA and a +2.0 RE24, making him the clear difference-maker on the scorecard. Tampa Bay had answered a Cubs fourth-inning run with Jose Siri's home run off Javier Assad in the bottom half, a +11.4% WPA swing that briefly kept the Rays even, but they could not manufacture a similar response to the seventh-inning rally.
Tampa Bay made things interesting in the ninth against Héctor Neris, with Taylor Walls drawing a walk that registered a +12.3% win-probability swing and Brandon Lowe's flyout adding another +15.5% in a tense sequence. Ultimately, a groundout by Yandy Díaz representing a -11.6% shift helped seal Chicago's lead. On the pitching side, Drew Smyly led all pitchers with a +22.1% WPA, followed by Aaron Civale at +13.7% and Tyson Miller at +8.9%, as the Cubs bullpen collectively protected the one-run margin through the final frames.