Atlanta Braves at Baltimore Orioles: Final Score & Recap

The Baltimore Orioles defeated the Atlanta Braves 4-2 on June 12, 2024, at Oriole Park at Camden Yards in a game that remained tightly contested before a decisive eighth inning settled the outcome. The DiamondIQ model entered the night favoring Baltimore at 67% and ultimately closed at 100% after the Orioles secured the final outs.

All of the scoring was concentrated in two innings. Baltimore struck first in the bottom of the third when Cedric Mullins doubled off Spencer Schwellenbach, a swing that shifted win probability 6.4 points in the Orioles' favor and put two runs on the board. The game then stayed locked at 2-0 until the eighth inning became the stage for the contest's most consequential moments. Matt Olson gave Atlanta life with a home run off Keegan Akin, a +27.7% win-probability swing that knotted the game at two. However, Marcell Ozuna followed by striking out against Akin, a 6.3-point swing back toward Baltimore that stalled the Braves' rally. Then Colton Cowser answered in the bottom half, hitting a two-run home run off Joe Jiménez for the single largest win-probability play of the night at +30.3%, restoring Baltimore's lead for good and pushing the DiamondIQ model's estimate sharply toward the home side.

Among individual performers, Cowser finished as the game's top batter by WPA at +30.3% with a RE24 of +1.7, while Olson was close behind at +27.8% WPA and led all batters with a +2.1 RE24. On the pitching side, Cade Povich led all hurlers with a +19.2% WPA contribution, while Schwellenbach posted a +7.4% mark despite surrendering the early Baltimore runs, and Craig Kimbrel added +6.3% in support of the final out sequence.