Cleveland Guardians at Cincinnati Reds: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 0 | 0 | 3 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 9 | 1 |
| CIN | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Cleveland Guardians defeated the Cincinnati Reds 5-3 at Great American Ball Park on June 11, 2024, handing Cincinnati a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had foreshadowed, having pegged the home side at just a 35% win probability before first pitch. The Guardians built their lead methodically, with the decisive burst coming in the third inning when Tyler Freeman's single off Nick Martinez swung win probability 11.4 points in Cleveland's favor and Bo Naylor followed with a double off the same pitcher for another 11.1-point swing, accounting for the three-run frame that gave the Guardians a cushion they would not relinquish. Cincinnati briefly answered with a Spencer Steer single off Triston McKenzie in the bottom of the sixth that moved the needle 11.9 points toward the Reds, but the club never fully closed the gap.
The pivotal blow came in the top of the eighth when Josh Naylor connected on a home run off Fernando Cruz, a swing worth 14.9 win-probability points and the single largest play of the game. That blast extended the Cleveland lead to two runs at a moment when the Reds still carried realistic hopes of a comeback, and it effectively settled the contest. Naylor finished as the game's top offensive performer by WPA at plus-12.1 with a RE24 of plus-0.7, while Steven Kwan posted the strongest run-environment contribution among Cleveland hitters at plus-1.7 RE24 alongside a plus-10.7 WPA mark, and Jake Fraley added plus-10.8 WPA. TJ Friedl's lineout off Emmanuel Clase in the bottom of the ninth registered an 8.1-point swing in Cincinnati's favor but proved too little too late as Clase closed it out.
Cleveland's bullpen was the quiet backbone of the win. Sam Hentges led all pitchers with plus-15.2 WPA, with Tim Herrin adding plus-8.4 and Cade Smith contributing plus-7.8, a trio of relief outings that collectively suppressed any Reds rally after the Cincinnati lineup had shown early signs of life. The final score stood 5-3, and the DiamondIQ model's estimate closed at 0% for Cincinnati, a complete probability collapse that reflected how thoroughly Cleveland controlled the game's critical moments.