Toronto Blue Jays at Milwaukee Brewers: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 0 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 0 |
| MIL | 0 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 0 | - | 3 | 6 | 0 |
The Story
The Milwaukee Brewers defeated the Toronto Blue Jays 3-1 on June 10, 2024, at American Family Field, a result the DiamondIQ model's estimate had strongly anticipated entering the day with a 64 percent home win probability that ultimately closed at 100 percent as Milwaukee controlled the contest from its decisive moments onward.
The game turned on two home runs in the middle innings that defined the outcome. Alejandro Kirk gave Toronto a brief advantage in the third with a solo home run off Colin Rea, a swing that represented a +10.7 percent win-probability shift in the Blue Jays' favor. Milwaukee answered immediately in the bottom half with a run of its own, and then Willy Adames delivered the pivotal blow in the fourth, a home run off José Berríos that produced the single largest win-probability swing of the game at +11.8 percent for the Brewers. Toronto's chances eroded further in the fifth when Isiah Kiner-Falefa grounded into a double play against Rea, a sequence that cost the Blue Jays 6.9 percent in win probability. William Contreras then added to the Milwaukee cushion with an RBI single off Berríos in the sixth, a hit worth +6.4 percent in win probability, making it a two-run game Toronto could not overcome.
Adames finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, accumulating a combined WPA of +21.0 percent alongside a RE24 of +1.6. On the pitching side, Colin Rea was the model's standout performer at +18.7 percent WPA, limiting Toronto to a single run despite absorbing the Kirk home run, while Joel Payamps contributed +8.1 percent and Trevor Megill added +6.3 percent out of the Milwaukee bullpen to preserve the final margin.