MLB Recap · June 10, 2024

Oakland Athletics at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

OAK1
Final
SD6

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
OAK010000000181
SD00111030-6100

The Story

The San Diego Padres handled the Oakland Athletics convincingly at Petco Park on June 10, 2024, winning 6-1 behind a dominant pitching performance and timely power from their lineup. The DiamondIQ model entered the game favoring San Diego with a 65 percent home win probability, and that figure climbed steadily to 100 percent by the final out. Oakland managed eight hits but crossed the plate just once, committing an error along the way, while the Padres collected ten hits and ran clean in the field.

Oakland starter Joey Estes absorbed the brunt of the damage across a difficult outing. The most consequential sequence came in the second inning, where a Luis Arraez flyout represented the game's single biggest swing in either direction, costing San Diego 12.4 percent in win probability by stranding a threat. The Padres quickly recovered, as Jake Cronenworth hit a home run off Estes in the third inning for a gain of 11.2 percent, and Fernando Tatis Jr. added another solo shot in the fifth worth 10.6 percent. A three-run seventh inning closed out the scoring and rendered any Oakland comeback academic. On the Oakland side, the most damaging moment came in the top of the sixth when Abraham Toro grounded out against Dylan Cease, a play that cost the Athletics 5.8 percent in win probability at a moment when the game was still theoretically within reach.

Ha-Seong Kim led all position players by WPA at plus-14.5 percent to go with a RE24 of plus-1.5, with his second-inning walk off Estes contributing 6.4 percent on its own. Cronenworth finished at plus-11.4 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-1.6, making his third-inning home run the single most valuable offensive play of the game in run-expectancy terms. Miguel Andujar added plus-8.0 percent WPA for Oakland in a losing effort. On the mound, Dylan Cease was the clear standout, posting plus-12.9 percent WPA to pace all pitchers, with Adrian Morejon and Jeremiah Estrada providing reliable bullpen support at plus-3.9 and plus-3.3 percent respectively.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025OAK bats firstFinalSD win %OAK win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 65.5% → final 100%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Luis Arraez Flyout
Bot 2nd · off Joey Estes
-12.4%
Jake Cronenworth Home Run
Bot 3rd · off Joey Estes
+11.2%
Fernando Tatis Jr. Home Run
Bot 5th · off Joey Estes
+10.6%
Ha-Seong Kim Walk
Bot 2nd · off Joey Estes
+6.4%
Abraham Toro Groundout
Top 6th · off Dylan Cease
-5.8%

Top Batters by WPA

Ha-Seong Kim+14.5%+1.5 RE24
Jake Cronenworth+11.4%+1.6 RE24
Miguel Andujar+8.0%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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