MLB Recap · June 8, 2024

Milwaukee Brewers at Detroit Tigers: Final Score & Recap

MIL5
Final
DET4

Line Score

Team123456789RHE
MIL1020020005103
DET130000000452

The Story

The Milwaukee Brewers took down the Detroit Tigers 5-4 at Comerica Park on June 8, 2024, handing the home side a loss that the DiamondIQ model's estimate reflected in stark terms — Detroit entered with a 43% win probability and closed at 0%. Milwaukee built its lead through two separate two-run outbursts, scoring twice in the third inning and again in the sixth, while Detroit's three-run second inning represented its best and ultimately insufficient offensive effort. The Brewers finished with 10 hits against 5 for the Tigers, though Milwaukee's three errors to Detroit's two added some turbulence to an otherwise controlled road victory.

The decisive moments were defined by a pair of performances from Mark Canha and Jackson Chourio. Chourio's double off Shelby Miller in the top of the sixth carried a win-probability swing of plus 25.6%, giving Milwaukee the cushion it needed heading into the final innings. Canha was the most impactful bat overall, contributing a plus 34.0% WPA on the night. His single off Freddy Peralta in the top of the second added 10.9% to Milwaukee's win chances, and his flyout in the bottom of the ninth — this time as a defensive event against Trevor Megill — swung win probability by 31.6% in Milwaukee's favor as Detroit's final threat evaporated. Chourio finished at plus 32.0% WPA with a plus 2.3 RE24, the best run-context figure among position players.

Out of the bullpen, the Brewers' relievers shut the door methodically. Joel Payamps led all pitchers with a plus 23.3% WPA, aided in part by Carson Kelly's strikeout in the bottom of the eighth that cost Detroit 12.9% in win probability. Bryan Hudson added plus 13.4% WPA and Jared Koenig contributed plus 10.0%, a collective effort that kept Detroit's lineup off the board after the second inning. Joey Ortiz's ground into a double play in the fourth, worth minus 9.1% WPA for Milwaukee's offense, was one of the few moments that threatened to tighten the game, but the Brewers' pitching staff ultimately preserved the one-run road win.

Analysis generated by DiamondIQ's model.

Win Probability

755025MIL bats firstFinalDET win %MIL win %
DiamondIQ model home win probability across the game (pre-game 43% → final 0%).

Biggest Plays by Win-Probability Added

Mark Canha Flyout
Bot 9th · off Trevor Megill
+31.6%
Jackson Chourio Double
Top 6th · off Shelby Miller
+25.6%
Carson Kelly Strikeout
Bot 8th · off Joel Payamps
-12.9%
Mark Canha Single
Bot 2nd · off Freddy Peralta
+10.9%
Joey Ortiz Grounded Into DP
Top 4th · off Casey Mize
-9.1%

Top Batters by WPA

Mark Canha+34.0%+1.3 RE24
Jackson Chourio+32.0%+2.3 RE24
William Contreras+4.4%+0.2 RE24

Top Pitchers by WPA

Full box score, pitch data, and the play-by-play timeline
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