Kansas City Royals at Cleveland Guardians: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KC | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 10 | 1 |
| CLE | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 9 | 2 |
The Story
The Kansas City Royals defeated the Cleveland Guardians 4-3 at Progressive Field on June 6, 2024, handing the home side a loss despite the DiamondIQ model's pre-game estimate of a 61 percent win probability in favor of Cleveland. The Guardians carried a 3-2 lead into the sixth inning, but Kansas City responded with a two-run frame that proved decisive. Kyle Isbel's fielder's choice in that sixth shifted win probability by 16.1 percent in the Royals' favor, though a Maikel Garcia groundout into a double play immediately swung it back 15.8 percent toward Cleveland, keeping the lead change precarious. Isbel then added an 18.3 percent swing in the eighth with a single off Hunter Gaddis, padding a one-run Kansas City advantage heading into the final frames.
The two most consequential plays of the game came in the final two innings and told the story of how the margin held. In the bottom of the eighth, David Fry grounded into a double play off John Schreiber, a play that swung win probability 24.2 percent toward Kansas City and extinguished what had been a viable Cleveland threat. Then in the bottom of the ninth, José Ramírez grounded out against James McArthur in what became the game's single largest probability swing, a 31.6 percent shift that ended Cleveland's last realistic chance at a comeback. Ramírez finished as the top batter by WPA at plus 50.0 percent, a figure that reflects how frequently he found himself in high-leverage situations, though his groundout to end the game ultimately sealed a Royals victory.
On the pitching side, Schreiber led all pitchers with a 31.9 percent WPA contribution, his double play induction in the eighth the clearest embodiment of that value. Cade Smith contributed 24.2 percent WPA, benefiting from Garcia's double play in the sixth that helped stall a Kansas City rally. Angel Zerpa added 7.1 percent for the Royals. Offensively, Isbel's 27.3 percent WPA and Hunter Renfroe's 10.4 percent rounded out the key contributors as Kansas City finished with 10 hits and moved to a final win probability of 100 percent, erasing Cleveland's pre-game edge entirely.