Arizona Diamondbacks at San Diego Padres: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks held off the San Diego Padres 4-3 at Petco Park on June 6, 2024, completing a road win that saw the DiamondIQ model's estimate of a home Padres victory drop from 55 percent before first pitch all the way to zero. Arizona built its lead early, scoring in each of the first two innings to go up 3-0, before San Diego answered with three runs in the fifth to draw even. Ketel Marte's single in the top of the seventh off Jeremiah Estrada proved to be the decisive swing, shifting win probability 13.2 percent in Arizona's favor and providing the go-ahead run that ultimately held.

The Padres had their chances but were undone by critical outs at key moments. Manny Machado grounded out against Ryan Thompson in the bottom of the eighth, a play that swung win probability 23.3 percent toward Arizona and effectively deflated San Diego's best scoring opportunity late in the game. Kyle Higashioka's strikeout against Slade Cecconi in the second also cost the Padres 10.9 percent in win probability, snuffing out an early rally. Jake Cronenworth was San Diego's most dangerous presence at the plate, posting a team-high 38.3 percent WPA and a 0.9 RE24, including a double in the fifth that swung things 11.3 percent toward the home side. But his strikeout to end the ninth against Paul Sewald, a 27.0 percent swing for Arizona, sealed the loss.

Ryan Thompson was the most impactful arm out of the Arizona bullpen, contributing 23.3 percent WPA with his eighth-inning work, while Kevin Ginkel added 11.2 percent WPA in support. Ketel Marte led Arizona's offensive contributors with 14.5 percent WPA and a 1.1 RE24, and Donovan Solano chipped in 6.6 percent WPA. The Diamondbacks finished with nine hits and one error to San Diego's ten hits and two errors, but Arizona's ability to manufacture runs early and protect the lead late proved to be the difference in a tight road victory.