New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap

The New York Mets defeated the Washington Nationals 6-3 at Nationals Park on June 4, 2024, handing the home side a loss the DiamondIQ model's estimate had made unlikely from early on. Washington entered with a 56% pre-game win probability, but New York systematically dismantled that edge across the middle innings. The Mets broke through in the fourth when Harrison Bader connected on a home run off DJ Herz, a swing that shifted win probability 17.8 points in New York's favor and proved to be the game's single most impactful offensive moment. The Mets compounded the damage in the fifth, as Starling Marte laced a triple off Derek Law that moved the needle another 17.0 points, effectively transferring control of the game to the visitors for good.

On the pitching side, David Peterson was the DiamondIQ model's top-graded arm in the contest, contributing 17.2 percentage points of win probability added. He navigated a seventh-inning threat that saw Joey Gallo single to add 6.9 points for Washington, but Peterson limited further damage when CJ Abrams popped out, a sequence that surrendered only a net 2.2-point swing to the Nationals. Dedniel Núñez followed with an 8.8-point contribution to close out New York's bullpen effort, and Jacob Barnes added a modest 0.9 points. The Mets finished with 13 hits and committed no errors, while Washington managed just six hits against a staff that kept the game from becoming competitive after the fifth inning.

Among position players, Bader led all hitters with a 19.2 WPA and 1.6 RE24, while Marte posted a 18.6 WPA and 1.8 RE24 to round out the Mets' two most consequential offensive contributions. Jacob Young was Washington's best individual performer by the DiamondIQ model's measure, finishing with an 8.0 WPA and a game-high 2.2 RE24, though his efforts came in a losing cause. New York's final win probability reached 100%, a complete reversal from the pregame outlook that had favored the home club.