St. Louis Cardinals at Houston Astros: Final Score & Recap

The Houston Astros defeated the St. Louis Cardinals 8-5 at Minute Maid Park on June 4, 2024, with the DiamondIQ model entering the game giving Houston a 52% win probability and closing at 100% as the Astros pulled away for a comfortable home victory. Houston built its foundation early, then delivered a decisive blow in the third inning that effectively settled the outcome.

The bottom of the third was the game's pivotal sequence. Yainer Diaz connected on a home run off Andre Pallante, a swing that shifted win probability by plus 11.7 percentage points, and Jeremy Peña followed with a double off the same pitcher worth plus 10.6 percentage points, giving Houston a four-run frame and a lead it would not relinquish. The Cardinals made noise in the sixth and seventh innings, as Masyn Winn homered off Parker Mushinski to swing win probability 8.4 points in St. Louis's favor, and Nolan Gorman added a solo shot off Seth Martinez worth plus 9.6 points. However, Brendan Donovan's strikeout against Bryan Abreu with two on in the seventh inning represented the single most damaging play of the night for St. Louis, erasing 12.2 percentage points of win probability and extinguishing what remained of the Cardinals' rally hopes.

Among the game's standout performers, Peña led all batters with a WPA of plus 17.1% and a RE24 of plus 2.2, while Winn was nearly his equal at plus 16.9% WPA and a RE24 of plus 2.7 despite being on the losing side. On the pitching side, starter Spencer Arrighetti led Houston's staff with a WPA of plus 9.5%, and Abreu contributed plus 8.9% out of the bullpen, including his critical strikeout of Donovan. The final line told the story cleanly: Houston's ten hits produced eight runs without an error, while St. Louis committed two errors against itself in a game the model ultimately saw as a foregone conclusion well before the final out.