New York Mets at Washington Nationals: Final Score & Recap
Line Score
| Team | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | R | H | E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 0 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 8 | 13 | 2 |
| WSH | 0 | 1 | 0 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 7 | 11 | 1 |
The Story
The New York Mets edged the Washington Nationals 8-7 at Nationals Park on June 3, 2024, in a game that swung dramatically before the Mets held on for the road victory. The DiamondIQ model's estimate opened with Washington holding a 58% pre-game win probability, a figure that eroded completely as New York built its lead and ultimately survived a ninth-inning rally. The Mets finished with 13 hits against two errors, while Washington collected 11 hits and committed one error in a contest that was far from settled until the final out.
The decisive moments were concentrated in the fourth and fifth innings and then again in the bottom of the ninth. Joey Gallo's home run off Tylor Megill in the fourth shifted win probability by 22.8 percentage points in Washington's favor, the biggest single offensive swing of the middle innings, and it helped the Nationals post three runs that frame to take a temporary advantage. New York answered emphatically in the top of the fifth, with Luis Torrens delivering a double off Dylan Floro that carried a 19.7-point win-probability swing and keying a four-run inning that put the Mets back in front. Washington loaded the bases in the ninth and made it a one-run game when Ildemaro Vargas singled off Adam Ottavino for a 14.5-point swing, but Joey Meneses' sacrifice fly off Jake Diekman produced a 21.0-point negative swing for the Nationals, leaving them unable to fully close the deficit.
The model's highest-impact performer was catcher Drew Millas, whose game-ending strikeout looking off Diekman registered a 31.6-point win-probability shift and contributed to his overall WPA of plus-29.5, though his RE24 of minus-0.4 reflected modest run-environment contribution. Mark Vientos posted a plus-25.8 WPA alongside a plus-2.9 RE24, and Jesse Winker added plus-22.5 WPA with plus-2.6 RE24, making both among the most consequential offensive contributors for New York. On the pitching side, Drew Smith led the Mets' bullpen with a plus-12.9 WPA, with Adrian Houser and Jordan Weems each contributing positively to preserve the slim final margin.