St. Louis Cardinals at Philadelphia Phillies: Final Score & Recap

The St. Louis Cardinals erased a pre-game deficit in probability and escaped Citizens Bank Park with a 5-4 victory over the Philadelphia Phillies in ten innings on June 2, 2024. The DiamondIQ model had installed Philadelphia as a heavy favorite before first pitch, estimating a 72 percent home win probability, but the Cardinals chipped away with two-run frames in the first and third innings before the Phillies answered with a pair of runs in the second and again in the fifth to keep the game knotted at four heading to extras.

The decisive sequence unfolded in the top of the tenth, when Nolan Gorman laced a single off Gregory Soto that swung win probability 28.5 points in St. Louis's favor, giving the Cardinals the lead they would not relinquish. Jose Fermin followed with a forceout that added another 18.5 points of win probability to the Cardinals' ledger. Ryan Helsley then closed out the bottom of the tenth in commanding fashion, striking out Nick Castellanos and Cristian Pache while inducing a flyout from Alec Bohm, swings that collectively shifted win probability sharply toward St. Louis and sealed the road win.

Among the game's top performers, Nick Castellanos led all batters with a WPA of plus-31.2, a notable figure despite his crucial strikeout in the final at-bat, reflecting his overall contributions through the contest. Gorman posted a plus-22.2 WPA alongside a RE24 of plus-2.3, underlining his run-creation impact. On the pitching side, Matthew Liberatore, Jose Alvarado, and JoJo Romero each contributed over 13 points of win probability added, forming the backbone of a Cardinals bullpen effort that ultimately overcame three St. Louis errors and held Philadelphia scoreless across the final six frames.