Arizona Diamondbacks at New York Mets: Final Score & Recap

The Arizona Diamondbacks handed the New York Mets a 10-5 defeat at Citi Field on June 1, 2024, erasing what the DiamondIQ model had framed as a perfectly even contest at first pitch. The Diamondbacks broke the game open in the third inning, and from that point the Mets never meaningfully recovered, surrendering runs in six of the nine innings as Arizona's offense worked through the lineup with consistent damage.

The decisive moment of the game came in the top of the third when Christian Walker launched a home run off Sean Manaea, a swing that shifted Arizona's win probability by plus-31.3 percentage points according to the DiamondIQ model's estimate and effectively reframed the entire contest. Walker finished as the game's most impactful offensive player, finishing with a plus-28.9 percent WPA and a RE24 of plus-3.1, reflecting how much his production altered both individual run-expectancy and overall outcome probability. Kevin Newman added a walk in that same third-inning sequence, contributing plus-5.5 percentage points to Arizona's win probability, while Corbin Carroll's strikeout in that frame represented the lone meaningful check on the inning's damage at minus-7.9 percent. The Mets got their most significant offensive moment in the bottom of the fifth when Mark Vientos connected off Slade Cecconi for a home run worth plus-8.1 percentage points, but it proved an isolated bright spot. Blaze Alexander's single off Manaea in the sixth, worth plus-6.5 percentage points, helped Arizona extend its lead further. Jake McCarthy was the second-most impactful Arizona hitter at plus-7.7 percent WPA and plus-1.3 RE24, while Slade Cecconi led Arizona's pitchers with a plus-7.2 percent WPA contribution despite surrendering the Vientos homer, followed by Kevin Ginkel at plus-5.4 percent.